EP 74: Preparing for the Future of Work
We talk with Lena Geraghty of the National League of Cities about a new report looking at the future of work in our cities and towns, and how municipal leaders can play a role in making it as good and inclusive as possible.
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Transcript
This episode of Municipal Equation is brought to you by MedCost. MedCost balances the care of your employees with the financial health of your local government by offering flexible administration, best in class care management, cost containment strategies, health and wellness programs, access to a broad provider network, and exceptional customer service. MedCost. This is Municipal Equation from the North Carolina League of Municipalities. Hi. This is Ben Brown from the North Carolina League of Municipalities, and here's a statement that'll probably shock no one. The pandemic changed a lot of things for us. In a number of cases, how we live, but most certainly how we work, for many people anyway. Matter of fact, for so many Americans who learned how to work from home, it became increasingly uncertain what the difference was sometimes between living and working. Essentially, we got used to something new since 2020, a new way of working. Not affecting everyone, but affecting enough people and affecting enough communities to draw attention to it as a focus of study. Meanwhile, our colleagues at the National League of Cities have been examining the future of work for years now, putting out periodic reports on what the league sees as the trends of work, how that's affecting our cities and towns, and what city leadership might want to consider as we move into that future. In the past, for instance, there's been plenty of examination of robots and artificial intelligence, things like that, which are still very much a factor to consider. What are the drivers that will shape the next ten years? To quote NLC, cities play a critical role in preparing for the future of work and situating themselves as places with thriving workforces. To learn more about this report, here's one of the authors.
I'm Lena Gerdy. I'm the director of innovation and sustainability in the Center for City Solutions at the National League of Cities. In discussing
the future of work, I guess we have to make that contrast with what we have today. Is there anything that defines work in the present day? And I know the answer depends on the many variables out there right now, you know, the size and style of the community itself if we're gonna localize. But is there anything that's typical or defining of how we work today more broadly?
I think the the future of work has been changing since the the concept of work, leaving your home, putting in hours in your local or global economy has has been constantly evolving. And we've certainly seen some of these changes since the COVID nineteen pandemic really expedite or expand. But we we kind of talk about and think about the future of work as as something that is happening now and evolving moving forward. And so actions that cities can be taking at this point are beneficial to make sure that they're moving towards having a thriving and inclusive community tomorrow, five years from now, ten years from now. Some of the mainstays in thinking about work as a construct really come down to four of the key pillars of action that we discuss in the report, opportunity, talent, place, and social infrastructure. All of these make up the daily lives of residents in cities, towns, and villages across the country, and cities are taking varying actions to be active and supportive of moving towards the future of work in in these areas.
You mentioned, inclusivity. And one thing that we discuss, at the League of Municipalities, and I'm sure, NLC too, is monitoring some of the inequities, within our communities. Is that also a factor with with work in the present day and the future of work?
That's definitely true. I think when most people think about the future of work, they think about the increased flexibility of work that many workers have seen over the last couple years, whether it's from remote work, work from home, flexible hours, moving towards contractor part time roles to stack different jobs and positions together. But at the end of the day, that type of work and flexibility only benefits a certain part of the population, and and these benefits are not really evenly distributed throughout the workforce. They primarily exclude low income, less educated workers who may benefit the most from that flexibility. And so there's an opportunity for city leaders here to really make sure that in thinking and preparing for the future of work or what's next in their communities, they're doing their part to ensure workers are able to work in a way that makes the most sense for their their families.
Mentioning flexibility, does this have to do with, work from home opportunities, remote working, and and how that's changing? Is is that one of the factors?
That's definitely one of the factors, but we've seen a really, I think, important shift in the types of benefits and supports that workers are receiving at work or in their communities to make it an easier lift to be a part of the local economies, whether it's from changes to child care expansion of after or preschool before school care programs, thinking through concepts like universal pre k, city leaders incentivizing the the growth of childcare businesses in their communities and making it an easier lift for people who are interested in being a part of the labor market in that way to participate. So that's certainly one way that we're seeing increased flexibility. And then also thinking through where people are at in their careers, where they wanna be going, providing opportunities for education, skill building, training through their current work relationships with employers or, local workforce development organizations and and boards to really think about how to integrate that growth and advancement within people's current roles in the workplace today.
So this report breaks out five drivers that will shape the next ten years of work. And the I believe the report points out that the next ten years of work are, you know, really important for the next hundred. Could you break out a few drivers that will shape work to come? We just went over a little bit of the, the flexibility. But, starting with the subject of robots, that was, that was one, and that's something that's kind of on people's minds. And we've heard about that, I think, at the last, election cycle or two, automation. What's that doing to the American worker? Could could we talk about these these five drivers?
Most definitely. So like we say in the the America works report, robots are coming, but the workers are not. So while the use of robots is on the rise, US population growth rates are currently at an all time low due to record low birth rate and a really sharp decrease in net immigration, which has declined from about a 100 a million new Americans per year in 2016 to less than 250,000 every year. So, really, what we're experiencing right now is not so much a job shortage, but a labor shortage, and that's why we're seeing this increase in move towards automation and robotics to do some parts of the the job that humans used used to do, but we just don't have that availability anymore. I think the thing to stay top of mind here is really that automation is creating more jobs than it is destroying, but millions of workers need to be trained for those new roles. And local governments have a really strong role to play in making sure that that their communities and and their residents and workers are are ready for this this new challenge. There's a note here about it's going to usher in the era of villages in cities big and small. What does that mean? So to us, a village means something that is a a smaller part of the community, but still has act you have access to all the amenities, whether it's health care, retail, education, school, all within relative proximity to where people are working. So for us, this means a movement out of investment and primary focus in a sound central downtown district. We've seen a lot of changes in those financial cores and and downtowns throughout the course of the pandemic, and I think that will continue to change as people are working remotely or working different hours and are spending more times in their local neighborhoods, they're gonna wanna be able to go to the coffee shop, go to the dry cleaner, grab, some groceries on their way back from dropping the kids off, at school, all within a more consolidated area of commercial activity and development that is more closely ingrained and entwined with the residential area where where homes are. So we're seeing this real decentralization of retail and commercial activity throughout communities, which is really beneficial, in growing local economies. But is it just a change from that centralized downtown business core that many cities have spent growing and developing for the last several decades.
And so the third driver that will shape the next ten years of work has to do with the urban housing crisis. Could could you explain that?
The urban housing crisis will will continue as long as demand exceeds supply. And without intervention, it's gonna continue to exacerbate some of the racial and social inequalities that we hear about when the media and read reading throughout the media and reading news articles about housing. Through the report, we talk a little bit about how 30% of American families spend more than 30% of their income on housing. And this might get worse before it gets better, the affordable and market rate housing that's accessible to families has been an issue in communities across the country and and really something that a lot of cities are are struggling to deal with. Some are making some some strides and using federal investments through, the American Rescue Plan Act or philanthropic funding to really jump start their local ecosystems to to rise to meet this need. But the the problem is so extreme right now. It'll just takes time for for those investments and those changes to play out into changes in in the community and the ability for residents to get into the housing that meets their needs.
So, what's driver number four? There's something about the American dream. It says workers will demand the American dream. What what is what do you mean by this?
So there's a real growing deepening support for social infrastructure to to support workers and families in the future. 80% of Americans support government financial support for childcare and pre k, and 55% of Americans support guaranteed income. This is up from just 11% of Americans who supported it in 2011. Mhmm. So there's this recognition that we're a part of a larger community here in this country. There are certain, things that can make the lives of workers and their families easier and that there is community benefit from from providing these these services and and supports from from a local government perspective. So we're seeing a lot of cities pilot things like guaranteed income programs or really think thoughtfully about how to invest in their child care and education system so that it's meeting needs. And this is something that because of the labor shortage, workers are really in the power seat right now to to demand and and make sure that this is a part of the future of work. Number five, out of the five drivers that will shape the next 10 of work,
climate change. Could could you go into that a little bit?
Yeah. This is one of the big ones. So, basically, the next ten years are the defining opportunity to move the needle when it comes to climate change and mitigating the impacts of climate events. And cities are the place where this work needs to happen. Cities are responsible for 75% of all CO two emissions. This is primarily from transportation and buildings. And there was even an Axios article yesterday that states that nine of the 10 fastest growing US major metro areas are getting significantly hotter and may face danger from other natural disasters. On the other hand, and a little more optimistically, a growing movement to electrify, decarbonize, transition cities to twenty four seven carbon free energy is projected to create 25 new million jobs across this country. So the opportunity and the challenge are both there when it comes to the climate crisis, and cities are at the center of this debate both in contributing to the scale of the problem and in experiencing its effects. So city leaders really need to lead the transformation in into a sustainable economy.
So to review these drivers, the robots are coming, but the workers are not. Flexibility of work will usher in an era of villages in cities big and small. The urban housing crisis, big factor, will continue as demand exceeds supply. Workers will demand the American dream. And as we just discussed, climate change will be the defining challenge and economic opportunity for cities, which so this is a lot, and there may be some writing on the wall here, but what can cities do about this?
City leaders are really in the seat to be change agents both today and and moving forward in in this work in this future of work ecosystem. And so I think there there's a lot that that can be done. The the report goes into talking about some of the recommendations and actions and highlighting city case studies in this area along four different pillars. That's the opportunity, talent, place, and social infrastructure. And there are a lot of great recommendations for your your city listeners and and cities in general to to dig into and and really align with what the needs are in their communities. I just wanted to mention also that through this report, we created a framework of six city typologies that, we align recommendations for in the reports. So starting there, understanding of what type of city you are living in or even leading, and then, using the the recommendations focus for that city will really help city leaders jump start action and thinking about what they can be doing differently or or better in their own communities.
Where can people find this report and others like it?
So we'd love to get as many city eyes on the floor report as possible. You can find it at www.nlc.org/america-works. There's so many great stories from cities across the country in this report, and we hope that it's, an optimistic view and a motivator for city leaders who are in positions of making real changes in their communities at this point.
We've gone over this, but just to kinda hammer it home one more time, this this is a recurring report that you guys do at NLC on the future of work. I mean, this is a subject you guys have been following for a very long time. You know, sometimes we think of work, we think of the private sector, we think of variables that are outside of government. Just one more time, why is this important for city leaders to pay attention to this kind of thing?
Yeah. So this future of work report is part of our overall future of cities initiative at the National League of Cities. So for the last ten years, we've been really helping local leaders understand the changes that are already happening in their communities and anticipating the game changing trends that will define their cities in the coming decades. This year, it was really easy choice to focus on work and workforce development. Although the future of work and workers is really constantly evolving, the COVID nineteen pandemic expedited and shifted the vision for the future of work in this country. So through this report, we wanted to further explore where cities are at in this point in their recovery and provide some guidance on how they can get ready for what's to come to ensure their residents across their entire community can really thrive and be a part of the local economy and the future of work. So this report is the the first edition for this year and our future of cities initiative, but we've also got a series of briefs on public sector workforce development. And my team's in the middle of working on an action guide, which will be released towards the end of the year, beginning of next year, that really helps local leaders think through the future of work within city hall. How do we make sure that we're preparing the municipal workforce and all those public servants who are highly motivated to meet the needs of residents across their community for what's coming next?
And I imagine this is a a subject you guys are gonna continue to, report on, ideally even on the, the City Speak podcast. Is that is that a possibility?
I think that's a a really distinct possibility. We've got a couple great city leader speakers lined up for the City Speak podcast, and and so I think it's likely that your listener will will hear more about the future of work through that venue.
And, yes, you heard right. NLC has its own podcast called City Speak, which you can access at nlc.0rg. And that's also where you can find reports like the one we just went over. So in North Carolina, a state of more than 540 municipalities, you can localize this report to your community. The report looks at six different city typologies from the biggest to the small and rural. The conclusion, according to NLC, is this. The next ten years will shape the next 100. Cities will face great challenges in the next decade. But through bold vision and effective execution, entrepreneurial city leaders can build America's cities, towns and villages into more sustainable and inclusive centers of community and opportunity. In the tumult of forces shaping this decade, city leaders have an unprecedented opportunity to reimagine and shape the future of work. And in doing so, realize the promise not only of their communities, but of the country. Unquote. Municipal equation is a podcast about cities and towns adapting to change, and it comes to you from the North Carolina league of municipalities, physically in Raleigh, North Carolina online at nclm.0rg. What are your observations about the future of work in your community? And what ideas come to mind to harness the best of it and prepare for it? My name is Ben Brown, and you can email me at bbrown@nclm.org. Would love to hear from you. And we will talk to you on the next one. Thanks for listening. This is Ben Brown.