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Oggi questa partita si gioca soprattutto per la leadership tecnologica e al centro dello scontro c'è il primato nel settore dei semiconduttori, I cervelli elettronici di tutti I dispositivi di ultima generazione. Minuscole placchette di silicio la cui importanza è intuibile semplicemente guardandosi attorno, dal pc o dallo smartphone con cui state ascoltando questo podcast, dalla smart tv con cui vedete la puntata di business plus, dall'orologio che avete al polso alla calcolatrice, fino ai finestrini delle automobili. Per accaparrarsi I siti di produzione è partita una nuova corsa all'oro, complice la pandemia che travolto le supply chain globali. Secondo Bloomberg l'industria dei chip della Cina sta crescendo più velocemente che in qualsiasi altra parte del mondo. Sono cinesi ben 19 delle 20 aziende del settore in più rapida crescita degli ultimi anni. Il centro mondiale della produzione dei suoi conduttori, però, è l'isola ai Taiwan, oggi dotata di un grande vantaggio tecnologico e di scala sull'industria di Pechino. TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, è attualmente la fonderia più grande al mondo. Questo ci spiega quanto la sfida fra la cinese Huawei e la statunitense Apple per il processore più veloce passi inevitabilmente per Taiwan. L'amministrazione di Joe Biden messo sul piatto oltre 50000000000 di dollari con il Chips Act, approvato da un fronte bipartisan che mette insieme interessi economici, di sicurezza e di leadership tecnologica. Pechino nel frattempo sta rispondendo con un ambizioso programma governativo che attraverso il reshoring della manifattura ad alta tecnologia punta a competere con la Silicon Valley. Questa accelerazione dei piani di investimento mira a rispondere allo squilibrio del mercato. Da anni l'offerta di microchip risulta insufficiente a soddisfare una domanda in crescita esponenziale dovuta sia alla ripresa post pandemica ma anche alla trasformazione digitale di molti settori produttivi. Nella puntata di oggi vogliamo capire qual è lo stato della competizione fra Stati Uniti e Cina sui semiconduttori e perché chip e supply chain sono il fulcro della sfida. Lo faremo con Alessandro Resu, direttore scientifico della scuola di politiche, e con lui faremo il punto su questa grande partita globale. Bentornati a Tecnopolicy e benvenuto ad Alessandro Resu. Buongiorno. La prima domanda che facciamo ai nostri ospiti riguarda loro. Chiediamo ai nostri ospiti di raccontare il loro percorso professionale e il modo e le strade attraverso cui sono arrivati al punto in cui si trovano oggi nella loro vita lavorativa ma non solo. Lavorativa ma non solo? Direi che la mia carriera si è svolta e si svolge soprattutto in 3 ambiti. Il primo è quello del lavoro come autore, come saggista, giornalista. Ho cominciato ormai molto tempo fa, 17 anni fa, quando cominciavo a perdere I capelli, a scrivere sui giornali, a scrivere e a tradurre libri su vari argomenti: la filosofia, la geopolitica, la politica industriale e la politica economica. L'Imes che è quella con cui ho collaborato per più tempo fin dal 2006 e poi varie altre riviste nel corso del tempo. La seconda parte della mia carriera è quella come esperto di politiche pubbliche e quindi come consulente e consigliere di istituzioni che ho portato avanti soprattutto nell'ultimo decennio per varie istituzioni, la Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, per cui è un incarico tuttora e quindi vi parlo solo a titolo personale, I ministeri degli Esteri, dell'economia, della giustizia, dell'università, del sud, altre istituzioni come Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, l'Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, Mediocredito centrale. La terza parte a cui comunque sono molto legato è invece il percorso che ho cercato di fare per la formazione dei giovani, sempre sui temi sia in relazione alle politiche pubbliche e sia in relazione al mio lavoro in materia di politica economica, di geopolitica, di geopolitica della tecnologia. Quindi il mio percorso cerca di mettere insieme in modo a volte confuso, a volte spero utile queste 3 identità diciamo. Ecco, geopolitica e tecnologia è esattamente l'argomento di questo podcast e parliamo quindi di uno dei temi che più ci interessato in questi 2 anni e mezzo dall'inizio della pandemia cioè I semiconduttori, I microchip. Dall'inizio del contagio da Covid-diciannove c'è stato una serie di problemi nelle supply chain globali partendo ovviamente dall'iniziale lockdown in Cina ma che poi questi problemi si sono estesi lungo tutta la filiera e hanno portato sicuramente anche a un ripensamento un ripensamento non solo legato all'immediato della pandemia ma anche a delle dinamiche geopolitiche di rapporti fra Stati Uniti e Cina che sicuramente fanno riconsiderare il futuro di queste supply chain di semiconduttori. In poche parole Stati Uniti e l'Europa in particolare si sono resi conto di essere troppo dipendenti da fornitori asiatici e in qualche modo stanno cercando di costruire una propria filiera, una propria stabilità e un approvvigionamento più garantito di questi di questi componenti fondamentali per tantissimi settori dalle auto alle industrie di ogni tipo. Qual è oggi il rapporto fra Stati Uniti e Cina in questa grande sfida globale nei semiconduttori? Grazie per la domanda. Volevo dire anzitutto che ritengo positivo che ci sia un'attenzione pubblica su un'industria sottovalutata in passato ma che ritengo l'industria più importante del mondo. E' l'industria più importante del mondo perché è l'industria abilitante per qualsiasi importante attività, valore aggiunto dal punto di vista industriale, dal punto di vista tecnologico, dal punto di vista digitale. Non esiste il digitale, non esiste l'intelligenza artificiale senza I semiconduttori. Quindi se le persone non studiano ingegneria elettronica noi non abbiamo il mondo digitale. Questo è il primo punto. Il secondo punto è che la Repubblica Popolare Cinese una straordinaria sete di semiconduttori che sono la prima fonte delle sue di più la Repubblica Popolare Cinese al mondo prima ancora del petrolio. Sono I semiconduttori attualmente. Sono quindi fondamentali per la struttura della più grande manifattura al mondo che è oggi la Repubblica Popolare Cinese. L'industria è un'industria estremamente complessa dal punto di vista tecnico e anche nella sua evoluzione, in particolare negli ultimi quarant'anni. Quindi gli Stati Uniti sono posizionati in questa industria con un ruolo di primissimo piano nella parte di progettazione e design che fortissimo valore aggiunto e anche nella parte dei macchinari indispensabili per la produzione di semiconduttori su larga scala. Mentre le strutture produttive, come hai detto, effettivamente sono collocate soprattutto in paesi dell'Asia orientale. Ora la Cina intende oltre che rafforzare le sue capacità produttive di progettazione e di ricerca in generale anche andare su quelli che sono I nodi più importanti, quelli che stanno alla frontiera tecnologica. Per questo sta investendo delle cifre elevatissime. Come sempre nel sistema cinese è difficile capire esattamente di che cifre si tratti ma stiamo nell'ordine di centinaia di miliardi. Quindi c'è un investimento molto importante da parte della Cina per recuperare il terreno in questo senso e Anche un investimento che viene rivendicato pubblicamente, come è avvenuto per esempio nel piano made in China 2025, ma con dei target che la Cina non è riuscita a rispettare e non rispetterà. Quindi l'obiettivo degli Stati Uniti è impedire che l'ascesa cinese nel settore sia così forte come è stata l'ascesa cinese in altri standard e settori tecnologici. Obiettivo vicino a questo, legato a questo è un equilibrio della struttura dei semiconduttori che veda anche per le catene del valore diciamo atlantiche e occidentali ma anche per gli Stati Uniti stessi per la ragione della volontà di avere una maggiore presenza manifatturiera anche in termini di posti di lavoro negli Stati Uniti un ruolo più importante. Quindi questo è lo stato dell'arte. Chiarissimo. Hai parlato di centinaia di miliardi investiti in Cina in questi anni per potenziare questo settore per rafforzarsi in questa competizione globale. Questi sono I primi anni in cui ho notato io ma insomma non mi sono mai trovato davanti a una situazione simile in questi anni in cui ho ho visto politiche industriali più o meno allineate nel sussidiare un settore cioè la Cina, gli Stati Uniti, l'Europa con il Chips Act e anche il Giappone con una serie di norme che sono state introdotte per finanziare e favorire anche l'investimento di società straniere nel territorio giapponese che è una cosa abbastanza rara per il Giappone che tendenzialmente non ama avere investitori stranieri nel proprio mercato. Si sono tutti nello stesso momento messi fondamentalmente a iniettare un sacco di soldi in un settore che fino a questo momento aveva funzionato abbastanza bene ed era prosperato in maniera abbastanza netta. E quindi la domanda che qualcuno si pone è: cosa succederà fra qualche anno quando tutte queste politiche di sussidio e tutte queste politiche industriali pubbliche per potenziare questo settore arriveranno a compimento, arriveranno a un punto in cui la produzione arriverà dove si vuole farla arrivare, dove questi soldi la porteranno? Beh, è un discorso interessante e anche intrigante. Da un lato dobbiamo considerare che ci sono le politiche industriali in superficie e ci sono le politiche industriali profonde. Quindi a volte ci sono stati da parte di alcuni stati, delle modalità di sussidio dell'industria non trasparenti ma comunque come pratica standard di mercato e poi a volte queste politiche industriali sono state anche l'oggetto di alcune dispute. Dal punto di vista storico la disputa più importante tra questo punto di vista è stato tra gli Stati Uniti e il Giappone. In particolare negli anni 'ottanta quando c'era una grande paura da parte degli Stati Uniti dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e le politiche industriali giapponesi del famoso Ministero dell'industria giapponese dell'epoca avevano reso l'industria giapponese dei semiconduttori estremamente importante. Poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni e poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni estere da parte delle imprese giapponesi. Addirittura I giapponesi avevano messo gli occhi su una delle aziende storiche della storia dei semiconduttori globale, quindi statunitense, Firstchild, Semicongactor. Pensa in quell'occasione che poi il congresso e gli apparati degli Stati Uniti hanno costruito il sistema attuale di controllo degli investimenti esteri negli Stati Uniti, quindi il potere anche da parte del presidente degli Stati Uniti di bloccare alcune transazioni, cosa che è avvenuto di recente nel mercato dei semiconduttori. Quindi c'è sempre questo gioco dal punto di vista storico. Questo è il primo messaggio. Il secondo messaggio è che dipende dall'evoluzione di questa industria. Se un'industria di circa 400 o 500000000000 a livello globale diventa millemiliardi a livello globale nel 2030 proprio per la sempre maggiore pervasività di questi componenti nelle industrie e nella nostra vita quotidiana c'è un generale allargamento della torta. In questo allargamento della torta poi ci sono elementi di competizione e I sussidi possono rientrare in questo ragionamento ma Io credo che il ragionamento importante sia quello per cui si tiene conto della complessità di questa industria in tutti gli elementi della sua catena del valore che degli aspetti che riguarda le capacità di ricerca capacità di ricerca su cui peraltro in Europa esistono delle potenzialità importanti, dei luoghi importanti dove si costruisce costantemente la ricerca dei semiconduttori appunto l'aspetto degli ingegneri e dei tecnici che fanno la progettazione e il design. Tutto il mondo dei componenti e dell'equipaggiamento con cui gli europei nei Paesi Bassi hanno costruito l'impresa più importante del mondo in questo campo che ASML. Un'azienda che questo slogan interessante per raccontarsi che è l'impresa più importante di cui non avete mai sentito parlare, che la racconta molto bene. Poi c'è anche tutta una serie di elementi chimici, di componenti chimici e di testing che sono fondamentali per l'industria. Poi ovviamente c'è la parte produttiva e ci sono le industrie integrate che cercano di fare un po' di tutti questi aspetti. Quello che è importante è dove si crea valore, come si stimola la nascita di nuove grandi imprese, come le imprese esistenti si rafforzano e diventano più innovative e questo è sempre un misto di elementi di politica industriale, visione strategica ma anche pura capacità organizzativa imprenditoriale e capacità innovativa. Quindi non può essere semplicemente imbrigliato dalle scelte statali ma sicuramente richiede una grande collaborazione e consapevolezza dell'importanza di questo settore anche per l'aspetto della produzione e dell'organizzazione dei talenti che come dicevo è fondamentale e proprio su questo aspetto dei talenti in una crescita di questo settore in questo decennio si stanno già giocando in Asia e si giocheranno sempre più a livello globale delle grandi partite per accaparrarsi talenti migliori e per saperli formare. Quindi questo aspetto di base poi è fondamentale. Bene, diciamo non si può fare innovazione per decreto, questa è la cosa, diciamo il messaggio. Ci sono tanti componenti che servono per riuscire a crescere in un settore così competitivo e così globale come quello dei semiconduttori. Però ci sono stati sicuramente dei decreti, soprattutto a livello americano, che hanno avuto un impatto su questo settore, come ad esempio le sanzioni che sono state imposte anche al trasferimento tecnologico tra Stati Uniti e Cina. Ecco, è pensabile un futuro in cui questi 2 giganti mondiali si costruiscono delle catene che non sono interdipendenti come oggi oppure una dose di interdipendenza è obbligatoria? E in questo caso ad esempio adesso le sanzioni anche per esempio secondarie che potrebbero colpire la Cina nel caso ad esempio di commercio con la Russia o in generale una guerra commerciale che continua sotto altre forme non solo in via diretta ma anche in via diretta. Che impatto potrebbe avere su questo settore che comunque è condizionato dalla geopolitica e dai rapporti che ci sono fra I paesi perché ovviamente il concetto di strategicità forse è mai come oggi si applica a quello dei semiconduttori. In questo settore e in altri settori esistono sia le regole dell'economia che le regole della geopolitica. Io non direi che non appartengo ad un campo che dice esiste solo la geopolitica? È un campo che dice esiste solo l'economia? Per cui le imprese devono andare sul mercato, quotarsi, avere della reputazione e credibilità con degli investitori. Poi queste imprese sono comunque collocate in dei luoghi fisici, sono collocate in degli Stati, hanno rapporti con degli Stati. Insomma tutto questo è fortemente interconnesso. Nelle grandi supply chain come questa, come altre coinvolgono effettivamente un insieme di paesi diversi di quelli che si chiamano colli di bottiglia. I colli di bottiglia sono tanti quindi in una catena del valore diciamo il punto in cui per ragioni politiche si può fermare o forzare la catena con degli effetti che possono essere potenzialmente di distruzione economica o comunque di danno economico molto forte sono diversi. In che mondo viviamo? Noi viviamo in un mondo in cui le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti hanno un peso molto rilevante. Anche su questo la storia ci aiuta a comprendere questo fatto perché il sistema delle sanzioni degli Stati Uniti è stato codificato principalmente durante 2 guerre. La prima è la prima guerra mondiale. L'ingresso degli Stati Uniti nella prima guerra mondiale nel 1917. Il trading with the Enamy Act è nel 1950 con la guerra di Corea Defense Production Act. Da queste 2 fonti normative poi promanano tantissimi elementi di diritto che condizionano il sistema finanziario anche per il ruolo internazionale del dollaro naturalmente e il sistema industriale. Quindi, come è stato mostrato in particolare nel 2020, la capacità di intervento degli Stati Uniti di condizionamento della catene del valore è molto elevata. Questo non significa però che le sanzioni siano strumenti di per sé onnipotenti dal punto di vista economico e politico. Dal punto di vista politico perché, come mostrato dalla storia, se l'obiettivo delle sanzioni è il cambio di alcuni regimi politici in alcuni paesi questo non è avvenuto. Quindi io penso che l'obiettivo delle sanzioni sia magari l'indebolimento degli avversari da parte degli Stati Uniti perché se l'obiettivo fosse veramente il cambio di regime politico le sanzioni non sarebbero intelligenti. E poi le sanzioni, oltre ad avere degli effetti indiretti, hanno anche delle conseguenze intenzionali. Per esempio tu sanzioni un attore per diminuire la sua capacità in un mercato, ma quell'attore in particolare se appartiene a dei sistemi politico economici che hanno mostrato una loro particolare flessibilità come quello cinese, che è un sistema molto complesso e particolare. Poi questo rappresenta un incentivo per quegli attori economici ad andare in altri mercati, a tentare di fare innovazione in altri mercati. Per esempio tu mi blocchi nelle telecomunicazioni, io lavoro sull'auto elettrica o sul cloud e mi metto con determinazione a fare questo. Quale sarà l'effetto ultimo di questo processo? È difficile prevederlo. Quindi l'obiettivo di breve termine potrebbe essere raggiunto, non sappiamo cosa succede nel medio e lungo termine. Quindi le sanzioni, in particolare le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti, sono un elemento fortemente interconnesso rispetto all'economia mondiale nella sua struttura attuale e I loro effetti e I loro processi vanno costantemente monitorati per capire in che direzione stanno portando le grandi filiere industriali su cui si gioca la competizione economica globale. Ecco quindi insomma un continuo fin tuning anche ex post perché le sanzioni che valgono oggi e che funzionano oggi poi non si sa che effetti possono avere tra un anno o fra 10 anni e quindi bisogna sempre controllare e monitorare questo tipo di politiche. Bene l'ultima domanda che facciamo oggi è su un consiglio che tu puoi dare ai nostri ascoltatori per leggere o seguire qualcuno che è un esperto, una rivista, una persona, una pubblicazione nel settore di cui ti occupi in questo tema della tecnologia e della geopolitica? Io vi sorprenderò un po' perché considero il libro di uno storico, perché abbiamo parlato di quanto le sanzioni siano importanti per comprendere la tecnologia e la geopolitica. Quindi il mio consiglio è leggetevi il libro uscito di recente in inglese, si chiama The Economic weapon, l'arma economica che racconta in modo devo dire sopraffino la storia delle sanzioni tra le 2 guerre, tra la prima guerra mondiale e tra la seconda guerra mondiale in particolare. Ti spiega molto bene come nasce questo sistema. L' scritto Nicholas Molder, questo sistema. L' scritto Nicholas Molder. Insomma prendetevi un fine settimana per leggere questo libro. Poi da un po' di mesi sto cercando di farlo pubblicare in italiano, non è molto semplice quindi chi è interessato sappia che gli basta tradurlo e potrà avere la mia prefazione gratis naturalmente se è gradita. Fantastico, abbiamo anche quindi un appello agli editori italiani. Ringraziamo Alessandro Resu, grazie di essere stato con noi e ci vediamo alla prossima puntata. 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Sono le 3 direttrici che guidano la corsa allo sviluppo. Il nuovo ordine internazionale nella prova con un bipolarismo segnato dalla competizione tra Stati Uniti e Cina in tutti I domini strategici. Oggi questa partita si gioca soprattutto per la leadership tecnologica e al centro dello scontro c'è il primato nel settore dei semiconduttori, I cervelli elettronici di tutti I dispositivi di ultima generazione. Minuscole placchette di silicio la cui importanza è intuibile semplicemente guardandosi attorno, dal pc o dallo smartphone con cui state ascoltando questo podcast, dalla smart tv con cui vedete la puntata di business plus, dall'orologio che avete al polso alla calcolatrice, fino ai finestrini delle automobili.\n\nPer accaparrarsi I siti di produzione è partita una nuova corsa all'oro, complice la pandemia che travolto le supply chain globali. Secondo Bloomberg l'industria dei chip della Cina sta crescendo più velocemente che in qualsiasi altra parte del mondo. Sono cinesi ben 19 delle 20 aziende del settore in più rapida crescita degli ultimi anni. Il centro mondiale della produzione dei suoi conduttori, però, è l'isola ai Taiwan, oggi dotata di un grande vantaggio tecnologico e di scala sull'industria di Pechino. TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, è attualmente la fonderia più grande al mondo.\n\nQuesto ci spiega quanto la sfida fra la cinese Huawei e la statunitense Apple per il processore più veloce passi inevitabilmente per Taiwan. L'amministrazione di Joe Biden messo sul piatto oltre 50000000000 di dollari con il Chips Act, approvato da un fronte bipartisan che mette insieme interessi economici, di sicurezza e di leadership tecnologica. Pechino nel frattempo sta rispondendo con un ambizioso programma governativo che attraverso il reshoring della manifattura ad alta tecnologia punta a competere con la Silicon Valley. Questa accelerazione dei piani di investimento mira a rispondere allo squilibrio del mercato. Da anni l'offerta di microchip risulta insufficiente a soddisfare una domanda in crescita esponenziale dovuta sia alla ripresa post pandemica ma anche alla trasformazione digitale di molti settori produttivi.\n\nNella puntata di oggi vogliamo capire qual è lo stato della competizione fra Stati Uniti e Cina sui semiconduttori e perché chip e supply chain sono il fulcro della sfida. Lo faremo con Alessandro Resu, direttore scientifico della scuola di politiche, e con lui faremo il punto su questa grande partita globale. Bentornati a Tecnopolicy e benvenuto ad Alessandro Resu. Buongiorno. La prima domanda che facciamo ai nostri ospiti riguarda loro.\n\nChiediamo ai nostri ospiti di raccontare il loro percorso professionale e il modo e le strade attraverso cui sono arrivati al punto in cui si trovano oggi nella loro vita lavorativa ma non solo. Lavorativa ma non solo?\n\nSpeaker 1: Direi che la mia carriera si è svolta e si svolge soprattutto in 3 ambiti. Il primo è quello del lavoro come autore, come saggista, giornalista. Ho cominciato ormai molto tempo fa, 17 anni fa, quando cominciavo a perdere I capelli, a scrivere sui giornali, a scrivere e a tradurre libri su vari argomenti: la filosofia, la geopolitica, la politica industriale e la politica economica. L'Imes che è quella con cui ho collaborato per più tempo fin dal 2006 e poi varie altre riviste nel corso del tempo. La seconda parte della mia carriera è quella come esperto di politiche pubbliche e quindi come consulente e consigliere di istituzioni che ho portato avanti soprattutto nell'ultimo decennio per varie istituzioni, la Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, per cui è un incarico tuttora e quindi vi parlo solo a titolo personale, I ministeri degli Esteri, dell'economia, della giustizia, dell'università, del sud, altre istituzioni come Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, l'Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, Mediocredito centrale.\n\nLa terza parte a cui comunque sono molto legato è invece il percorso che ho cercato di fare per la formazione dei giovani, sempre sui temi sia in relazione alle politiche pubbliche e sia in relazione al mio lavoro in materia di politica economica, di geopolitica, di geopolitica della tecnologia. Quindi il mio percorso cerca di mettere insieme in modo a volte confuso, a volte spero utile queste 3 identità diciamo.\n\nSpeaker 0: Ecco, geopolitica e tecnologia è esattamente l'argomento di questo podcast e parliamo quindi di uno dei temi che più ci interessato in questi 2 anni e mezzo dall'inizio della pandemia cioè I semiconduttori, I microchip. Dall'inizio del contagio da Covid-diciannove c'è stato una serie di problemi nelle supply chain globali partendo ovviamente dall'iniziale lockdown in Cina ma che poi questi problemi si sono estesi lungo tutta la filiera e hanno portato sicuramente anche a un ripensamento un ripensamento non solo legato all'immediato della pandemia ma anche a delle dinamiche geopolitiche di rapporti fra Stati Uniti e Cina che sicuramente fanno riconsiderare il futuro di queste supply chain di semiconduttori. In poche parole Stati Uniti e l'Europa in particolare si sono resi conto di essere troppo dipendenti da fornitori asiatici e in qualche modo stanno cercando di costruire una propria filiera, una propria stabilità e un approvvigionamento più garantito di questi di questi componenti fondamentali per tantissimi settori dalle auto alle industrie di ogni tipo. Qual è oggi il rapporto fra Stati Uniti e Cina in questa grande sfida globale nei semiconduttori?\n\nSpeaker 1: Grazie per la domanda. Volevo dire anzitutto che ritengo positivo che ci sia un'attenzione pubblica su un'industria sottovalutata in passato ma che ritengo l'industria più importante del mondo. E' l'industria più importante del mondo perché è l'industria abilitante per qualsiasi importante attività, valore aggiunto dal punto di vista industriale, dal punto di vista tecnologico, dal punto di vista digitale. Non esiste il digitale, non esiste l'intelligenza artificiale senza I semiconduttori. Quindi se le persone non studiano ingegneria elettronica noi non abbiamo il mondo digitale.\n\nQuesto è il primo punto. Il secondo punto è che la Repubblica Popolare Cinese una straordinaria sete di semiconduttori che sono la prima fonte delle sue di più la Repubblica Popolare Cinese al mondo prima ancora del petrolio. Sono I semiconduttori attualmente. Sono quindi fondamentali per la struttura della più grande manifattura al mondo che è oggi la Repubblica Popolare Cinese. L'industria è un'industria estremamente complessa dal punto di vista tecnico e anche nella sua evoluzione, in particolare negli ultimi quarant'anni.\n\nQuindi gli Stati Uniti sono posizionati in questa industria con un ruolo di primissimo piano nella parte di progettazione e design che fortissimo valore aggiunto e anche nella parte dei macchinari indispensabili per la produzione di semiconduttori su larga scala. Mentre le strutture produttive, come hai detto, effettivamente sono collocate soprattutto in paesi dell'Asia orientale. Ora la Cina intende oltre che rafforzare le sue capacità produttive di progettazione e di ricerca in generale anche andare su quelli che sono I nodi più importanti, quelli che stanno alla frontiera tecnologica. Per questo sta investendo delle cifre elevatissime. Come sempre nel sistema cinese è difficile capire esattamente di che cifre si tratti ma stiamo nell'ordine di centinaia di miliardi.\n\nQuindi c'è un investimento molto importante da parte della Cina per recuperare il terreno in questo senso e Anche un investimento che viene rivendicato pubblicamente, come è avvenuto per esempio nel piano made in China 2025, ma con dei target che la Cina non è riuscita a rispettare e non rispetterà. Quindi l'obiettivo degli Stati Uniti è impedire che l'ascesa cinese nel settore sia così forte come è stata l'ascesa cinese in altri standard e settori tecnologici. Obiettivo vicino a questo, legato a questo è un equilibrio della struttura dei semiconduttori che veda anche per le catene del valore diciamo atlantiche e occidentali ma anche per gli Stati Uniti stessi per la ragione della volontà di avere una maggiore presenza manifatturiera anche in termini di posti di lavoro negli Stati Uniti un ruolo più importante. Quindi questo è lo stato dell'arte.\n\nSpeaker 0: Chiarissimo. Hai parlato di centinaia di miliardi investiti in Cina in questi anni per potenziare questo settore per rafforzarsi in questa competizione globale. Questi sono I primi anni in cui ho notato io ma insomma non mi sono mai trovato davanti a una situazione simile in questi anni in cui ho ho visto politiche industriali più o meno allineate nel sussidiare un settore cioè la Cina, gli Stati Uniti, l'Europa con il Chips Act e anche il Giappone con una serie di norme che sono state introdotte per finanziare e favorire anche l'investimento di società straniere nel territorio giapponese che è una cosa abbastanza rara per il Giappone che tendenzialmente non ama avere investitori stranieri nel proprio mercato. Si sono tutti nello stesso momento messi fondamentalmente a iniettare un sacco di soldi in un settore che fino a questo momento aveva funzionato abbastanza bene ed era prosperato in maniera abbastanza netta. E quindi la domanda che qualcuno si pone è: cosa succederà fra qualche anno quando tutte queste politiche di sussidio e tutte queste politiche industriali pubbliche per potenziare questo settore arriveranno a compimento, arriveranno a un punto in cui la produzione arriverà dove si vuole farla arrivare, dove questi soldi la porteranno?\n\nBeh, è un discorso interessante e anche intrigante.\n\nSpeaker 1: Da un lato dobbiamo considerare che ci sono le politiche industriali in superficie e ci sono le politiche industriali profonde. Quindi a volte ci sono stati da parte di alcuni stati, delle modalità di sussidio dell'industria non trasparenti ma comunque come pratica standard di mercato e poi a volte queste politiche industriali sono state anche l'oggetto di alcune dispute. Dal punto di vista storico la disputa più importante tra questo punto di vista è stato tra gli Stati Uniti e il Giappone. In particolare negli anni 'ottanta quando c'era una grande paura da parte degli Stati Uniti dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e le politiche industriali giapponesi del famoso Ministero dell'industria giapponese dell'epoca avevano reso l'industria giapponese dei semiconduttori estremamente importante. Poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni e poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni estere da parte delle imprese giapponesi.\n\nAddirittura I giapponesi avevano messo gli occhi su una delle aziende storiche della storia dei semiconduttori globale, quindi statunitense, Firstchild, Semicongactor. Pensa in quell'occasione che poi il congresso e gli apparati degli Stati Uniti hanno costruito il sistema attuale di controllo degli investimenti esteri negli Stati Uniti, quindi il potere anche da parte del presidente degli Stati Uniti di bloccare alcune transazioni, cosa che è avvenuto di recente nel mercato dei semiconduttori. Quindi c'è sempre questo gioco dal punto di vista storico. Questo è il primo messaggio. Il secondo messaggio è che dipende dall'evoluzione di questa industria.\n\nSe un'industria di circa 400 o 500000000000 a livello globale diventa millemiliardi a livello globale nel 2030 proprio per la sempre maggiore pervasività di questi componenti nelle industrie e nella nostra vita quotidiana c'è un generale allargamento della torta. In questo allargamento della torta poi ci sono elementi di competizione e I sussidi possono rientrare in questo ragionamento ma Io credo che il ragionamento importante sia quello per cui si tiene conto della complessità di questa industria in tutti gli elementi della sua catena del valore che degli aspetti che riguarda le capacità di ricerca capacità di ricerca su cui peraltro in Europa esistono delle potenzialità importanti, dei luoghi importanti dove si costruisce costantemente la ricerca dei semiconduttori appunto l'aspetto degli ingegneri e dei tecnici che fanno la progettazione e il design. Tutto il mondo dei componenti e dell'equipaggiamento con cui gli europei nei Paesi Bassi hanno costruito l'impresa più importante del mondo in questo campo che ASML. Un'azienda che questo slogan interessante per raccontarsi che è l'impresa più importante di cui non avete mai sentito parlare, che la racconta molto bene. Poi c'è anche tutta una serie di elementi chimici, di componenti chimici e di testing che sono fondamentali per l'industria.\n\nPoi ovviamente c'è la parte produttiva e ci sono le industrie integrate che cercano di fare un po' di tutti questi aspetti. Quello che è importante è dove si crea valore, come si stimola la nascita di nuove grandi imprese, come le imprese esistenti si rafforzano e diventano più innovative e questo è sempre un misto di elementi di politica industriale, visione strategica ma anche pura capacità organizzativa imprenditoriale e capacità innovativa. Quindi non può essere semplicemente imbrigliato dalle scelte statali ma sicuramente richiede una grande collaborazione e consapevolezza dell'importanza di questo settore anche per l'aspetto della produzione e dell'organizzazione dei talenti che come dicevo è fondamentale e proprio su questo aspetto dei talenti in una crescita di questo settore in questo decennio si stanno già giocando in Asia e si giocheranno sempre più a livello globale delle grandi partite per accaparrarsi talenti migliori e per saperli formare. Quindi questo aspetto di base poi è fondamentale.\n\nSpeaker 0: Bene, diciamo non si può fare innovazione per decreto, questa è la cosa, diciamo il messaggio. Ci sono tanti componenti che servono per riuscire a crescere in un settore così competitivo e così globale come quello dei semiconduttori. Però ci sono stati sicuramente dei decreti, soprattutto a livello americano, che hanno avuto un impatto su questo settore, come ad esempio le sanzioni che sono state imposte anche al trasferimento tecnologico tra Stati Uniti e Cina. Ecco, è pensabile un futuro in cui questi 2 giganti mondiali si costruiscono delle catene che non sono interdipendenti come oggi oppure una dose di interdipendenza è obbligatoria? E in questo caso ad esempio adesso le sanzioni anche per esempio secondarie che potrebbero colpire la Cina nel caso ad esempio di commercio con la Russia o in generale una guerra commerciale che continua sotto altre forme non solo in via diretta ma anche in via diretta.\n\nChe impatto potrebbe avere su questo settore che comunque è condizionato dalla geopolitica e dai rapporti che ci sono fra I paesi perché ovviamente il concetto di strategicità forse è mai come oggi si applica a quello dei semiconduttori.\n\nSpeaker 1: In questo settore e in altri settori esistono sia le regole dell'economia che le regole della geopolitica. Io non direi che non appartengo ad un campo che dice esiste solo la geopolitica? È un campo che dice esiste solo l'economia? Per cui le imprese devono andare sul mercato, quotarsi, avere della reputazione e credibilità con degli investitori. Poi queste imprese sono comunque collocate in dei luoghi fisici, sono collocate in degli Stati, hanno rapporti con degli Stati.\n\nInsomma tutto questo è fortemente interconnesso. Nelle grandi supply chain come questa, come altre coinvolgono effettivamente un insieme di paesi diversi di quelli che si chiamano colli di bottiglia. I colli di bottiglia sono tanti quindi in una catena del valore diciamo il punto in cui per ragioni politiche si può fermare o forzare la catena con degli effetti che possono essere potenzialmente di distruzione economica o comunque di danno economico molto forte sono diversi. In che mondo viviamo? Noi viviamo in un mondo in cui le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti hanno un peso molto rilevante.\n\nAnche su questo la storia ci aiuta a comprendere questo fatto perché il sistema delle sanzioni degli Stati Uniti è stato codificato principalmente durante 2 guerre. La prima è la prima guerra mondiale. L'ingresso degli Stati Uniti nella prima guerra mondiale nel 1917. Il trading with the Enamy Act è nel 1950 con la guerra di Corea Defense Production Act. Da queste 2 fonti normative poi promanano tantissimi elementi di diritto che condizionano il sistema finanziario anche per il ruolo internazionale del dollaro naturalmente e il sistema industriale.\n\nQuindi, come è stato mostrato in particolare nel 2020, la capacità di intervento degli Stati Uniti di condizionamento della catene del valore è molto elevata. Questo non significa però che le sanzioni siano strumenti di per sé onnipotenti dal punto di vista economico e politico. Dal punto di vista politico perché, come mostrato dalla storia, se l'obiettivo delle sanzioni è il cambio di alcuni regimi politici in alcuni paesi questo non è avvenuto. Quindi io penso che l'obiettivo delle sanzioni sia magari l'indebolimento degli avversari da parte degli Stati Uniti perché se l'obiettivo fosse veramente il cambio di regime politico le sanzioni non sarebbero intelligenti. E poi le sanzioni, oltre ad avere degli effetti indiretti, hanno anche delle conseguenze intenzionali.\n\nPer esempio tu sanzioni un attore per diminuire la sua capacità in un mercato, ma quell'attore in particolare se appartiene a dei sistemi politico economici che hanno mostrato una loro particolare flessibilità come quello cinese, che è un sistema molto complesso e particolare. Poi questo rappresenta un incentivo per quegli attori economici ad andare in altri mercati, a tentare di fare innovazione in altri mercati. Per esempio tu mi blocchi nelle telecomunicazioni, io lavoro sull'auto elettrica o sul cloud e mi metto con determinazione a fare questo. Quale sarà l'effetto ultimo di questo processo? È difficile prevederlo.\n\nQuindi l'obiettivo di breve termine potrebbe essere raggiunto, non sappiamo cosa succede nel medio e lungo termine. Quindi le sanzioni, in particolare le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti, sono un elemento fortemente interconnesso rispetto all'economia mondiale nella sua struttura attuale e I loro effetti e I loro processi vanno costantemente monitorati per capire in che direzione stanno portando le grandi filiere industriali su cui si gioca la competizione economica globale.\n\nSpeaker 0: Ecco quindi insomma un continuo fin tuning anche ex post perché le sanzioni che valgono oggi e che funzionano oggi poi non si sa che effetti possono avere tra un anno o fra 10 anni e quindi bisogna sempre controllare e monitorare questo tipo di politiche. Bene l'ultima domanda che facciamo oggi è su un consiglio che tu puoi dare ai nostri ascoltatori per leggere o seguire qualcuno che è un esperto, una rivista, una persona, una pubblicazione nel settore di cui ti occupi in questo tema della tecnologia e della geopolitica?\n\nSpeaker 1: Io vi sorprenderò un po' perché considero il libro di uno storico, perché abbiamo parlato di quanto le sanzioni siano importanti per comprendere la tecnologia e la geopolitica. Quindi il mio consiglio è leggetevi il libro uscito di recente in inglese, si chiama The Economic weapon, l'arma economica che racconta in modo devo dire sopraffino la storia delle sanzioni tra le 2 guerre, tra la prima guerra mondiale e tra la seconda guerra mondiale in particolare. Ti spiega molto bene come nasce questo sistema. L' scritto Nicholas Molder, questo sistema. L' scritto Nicholas Molder.\n\nInsomma prendetevi un fine settimana per leggere questo libro. Poi da un po' di mesi sto cercando di farlo pubblicare in italiano, non è molto semplice quindi chi è interessato sappia che gli basta tradurlo e potrà avere la mia prefazione gratis naturalmente se è gradita.\n\nSpeaker 0: Fantastico, abbiamo anche quindi un appello agli editori italiani. Ringraziamo Alessandro Resu, grazie di essere stato con noi e ci vediamo alla prossima puntata. Questo episodio è stato scritto da me ed Eleonora Russo registrato negli studi Zuan a Roma e prodotto da Business Plus.", "paragraphs": [ { "sentences": [ { "text": "Sicurezza, tecnologia, economia.", "start": 10.88, "end": 12.34 }, { "text": "Sono le 3 direttrici che guidano la corsa allo sviluppo.", "start": 12.675, "end": 15.555 }, { "text": "Il nuovo ordine internazionale nella prova con un bipolarismo segnato dalla competizione tra Stati Uniti e Cina in tutti I domini strategici.", "start": 15.555, "end": 23.255001 }, { "text": "Oggi questa partita si gioca soprattutto per la leadership tecnologica e al centro dello scontro c'è il primato nel settore dei semiconduttori, I cervelli elettronici di tutti I dispositivi di ultima generazione.", "start": 23.635, "end": 35.27 }, { "text": "Minuscole placchette di silicio la cui importanza è intuibile semplicemente guardandosi attorno, dal pc o dallo smartphone con cui state ascoltando questo podcast, dalla smart tv con cui vedete la puntata di business plus, dall'orologio che avete al polso alla calcolatrice, fino ai finestrini delle automobili.", "start": 35.809998, "end": 53.38 } ], "start": 10.88, "end": 53.38, "num_words": 113.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Per accaparrarsi I siti di produzione è partita una nuova corsa all'oro, complice la pandemia che travolto le supply chain globali.", "start": 53.52, "end": 61.04 }, { "text": "Secondo Bloomberg l'industria dei chip della Cina sta crescendo più velocemente che in qualsiasi altra parte del mondo.", "start": 61.04, "end": 67.46 }, { "text": "Sono cinesi ben 19 delle 20 aziende del settore in più rapida crescita degli ultimi anni.", "start": 67.895004, "end": 73.895004 }, { "text": "Il centro mondiale della produzione dei suoi conduttori, però, è l'isola ai Taiwan, oggi dotata di un grande vantaggio tecnologico e di scala sull'industria di Pechino.", "start": 73.895004, "end": 83.435005 }, { "text": "TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, è attualmente la fonderia più grande al mondo.", "start": 83.55, "end": 91.170006 } ], "start": 53.52, "end": 91.170006, "num_words": 94.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Questo ci spiega quanto la sfida fra la cinese Huawei e la statunitense Apple per il processore più veloce passi inevitabilmente per Taiwan.", "start": 91.39, "end": 99.534996 }, { "text": "L'amministrazione di Joe Biden messo sul piatto oltre 50000000000 di dollari con il Chips Act, approvato da un fronte bipartisan che mette insieme interessi economici, di sicurezza e di leadership tecnologica.", "start": 99.534996, "end": 112.29 }, { "text": "Pechino nel frattempo sta rispondendo con un ambizioso programma governativo che attraverso il reshoring della manifattura ad alta tecnologia punta a competere con la Silicon Valley.", "start": 112.590004, "end": 123.33 }, { "text": "Questa accelerazione dei piani di investimento mira a rispondere allo squilibrio del mercato.", "start": 123.425, "end": 127.845 }, { "text": "Da anni l'offerta di microchip risulta insufficiente a soddisfare una domanda in crescita esponenziale dovuta sia alla ripresa post pandemica ma anche alla trasformazione digitale di molti settori produttivi.", "start": 128.465, "end": 139.64 } ], "start": 91.39, "end": 139.64, "num_words": 122.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Nella puntata di oggi vogliamo capire qual è lo stato della competizione fra Stati Uniti e Cina sui semiconduttori e perché chip e supply chain sono il fulcro della sfida.", "start": 139.85999, "end": 149.31999 }, { "text": "Lo faremo con Alessandro Resu, direttore scientifico della scuola di politiche, e con lui faremo il punto su questa grande partita globale.", "start": 149.45999, "end": 157.47499 }, { "text": "Bentornati a Tecnopolicy e benvenuto ad Alessandro Resu.", "start": 160.815, "end": 164.435 }, { "text": "Buongiorno.", "start": 164.815, "end": 165.315 }, { "text": "La prima domanda che facciamo ai nostri ospiti riguarda loro.", "start": 166.58, "end": 171.352 } ], "start": 139.85999, "end": 171.352, "num_words": 71.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Chiediamo ai nostri ospiti di raccontare il loro percorso professionale e il modo e le strade attraverso cui sono arrivati al punto in cui si trovano oggi nella loro vita lavorativa ma non solo.", "start": 171.356, "end": 181.16 }, { "text": "Lavorativa ma non solo?", "start": 181.395, "end": 183.395 } ], "start": 171.356, "end": 183.395, "num_words": 38.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Direi che la mia carriera si è svolta e si svolge soprattutto in 3 ambiti.", "start": 183.395, "end": 188.695 }, { "text": "Il primo è quello del lavoro come autore, come saggista, giornalista.", "start": 189.075, "end": 195.575 }, { "text": "Ho cominciato ormai molto tempo fa, 17 anni fa, quando cominciavo a perdere I capelli, a scrivere sui giornali, a scrivere e a tradurre libri su vari argomenti: la filosofia, la geopolitica, la politica industriale e la politica economica.", "start": 196.54001, "end": 216.795 }, { "text": "L'Imes che è quella con cui ho collaborato per più tempo fin dal 2006 e poi varie altre riviste nel corso del tempo.", "start": 217.015, "end": 232.51 }, { "text": "La seconda parte della mia carriera è quella come esperto di politiche pubbliche e quindi come consulente e consigliere di istituzioni che ho portato avanti soprattutto nell'ultimo decennio per varie istituzioni, la Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, per cui è un incarico tuttora e quindi vi parlo solo a titolo personale, I ministeri degli Esteri, dell'economia, della giustizia, dell'università, del sud, altre istituzioni come Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, l'Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, Mediocredito centrale.", "start": 232.56999, "end": 267.995 } ], "start": 183.395, "end": 267.995, "num_words": 161.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "La terza parte a cui comunque sono molto legato è invece il percorso che ho cercato di fare per la formazione dei giovani, sempre sui temi sia in relazione alle politiche pubbliche e sia in relazione al mio lavoro in materia di politica economica, di geopolitica, di geopolitica della tecnologia.", "start": 267.995, "end": 290.66 }, { "text": "Quindi il mio percorso cerca di mettere insieme in modo a volte confuso, a volte spero utile queste 3 identità diciamo.", "start": 291.145, "end": 301.06497 } ], "start": 267.995, "end": 301.06497, "num_words": 71.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Ecco, geopolitica e tecnologia è esattamente l'argomento di questo podcast e parliamo quindi di uno dei temi che più ci interessato in questi 2 anni e mezzo dall'inizio della pandemia cioè I semiconduttori, I microchip.", "start": 301.06497, "end": 317.38 }, { "text": "Dall'inizio del contagio da Covid-diciannove c'è stato una serie di problemi nelle supply chain globali partendo ovviamente dall'iniziale lockdown in Cina ma che poi questi problemi si sono estesi lungo tutta la filiera e hanno portato sicuramente anche a un ripensamento un ripensamento non solo legato all'immediato della pandemia ma anche a delle dinamiche geopolitiche di rapporti fra Stati Uniti e Cina che sicuramente fanno riconsiderare il futuro di queste supply chain di semiconduttori.", "start": 318.4, "end": 358.815 }, { "text": "In poche parole Stati Uniti e l'Europa in particolare si sono resi conto di essere troppo dipendenti da fornitori asiatici e in qualche modo stanno cercando di costruire una propria filiera, una propria stabilità e un approvvigionamento più garantito di questi di questi componenti fondamentali per tantissimi settori dalle auto alle industrie di ogni tipo.", "start": 359.035, "end": 388.755 }, { "text": "Qual è oggi il rapporto fra Stati Uniti e Cina in questa grande sfida globale nei semiconduttori?", "start": 389.65002, "end": 395.75 } ], "start": 301.06497, "end": 395.75, "num_words": 181.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Grazie per la domanda.", "start": 397.49002, "end": 398.77002 }, { "text": "Volevo dire anzitutto che ritengo positivo che ci sia un'attenzione pubblica su un'industria sottovalutata in passato ma che ritengo l'industria più importante del mondo.", "start": 398.77002, "end": 408.64502 }, { "text": "E' l'industria più importante del mondo perché è l'industria abilitante per qualsiasi importante attività, valore aggiunto dal punto di vista industriale, dal punto di vista tecnologico, dal punto di vista digitale.", "start": 408.70502, "end": 421.1903 }, { "text": "Non esiste il digitale, non esiste l'intelligenza artificiale senza I semiconduttori.", "start": 421.1903, "end": 426.17758 }, { "text": "Quindi se le persone non studiano ingegneria elettronica noi non abbiamo il mondo digitale.", "start": 426.17758, "end": 432.525 } ], "start": 397.49002, "end": 432.525, "num_words": 84.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Questo è il primo punto.", "start": 432.685, "end": 434.813 }, { "text": "Il secondo punto è che la Repubblica Popolare Cinese una straordinaria sete di semiconduttori che sono la prima fonte delle sue di più la Repubblica Popolare Cinese al mondo prima ancora del petrolio.", "start": 434.813, "end": 452.90002 }, { "text": "Sono I semiconduttori attualmente.", "start": 453.36002, "end": 455.44 }, { "text": "Sono quindi fondamentali per la struttura della più grande manifattura al mondo che è oggi la Repubblica Popolare Cinese.", "start": 455.44, "end": 464.29498 }, { "text": "L'industria è un'industria estremamente complessa dal punto di vista tecnico e anche nella sua evoluzione, in particolare negli ultimi quarant'anni.", "start": 464.915, "end": 473.655 } ], "start": 432.685, "end": 473.655, "num_words": 81.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Quindi gli Stati Uniti sono posizionati in questa industria con un ruolo di primissimo piano nella parte di progettazione e design che fortissimo valore aggiunto e anche nella parte dei macchinari indispensabili per la produzione di semiconduttori su larga scala.", "start": 474.22, "end": 494.015 }, { "text": "Mentre le strutture produttive, come hai detto, effettivamente sono collocate soprattutto in paesi dell'Asia orientale.", "start": 494.015, "end": 501.795 }, { "text": "Ora la Cina intende oltre che rafforzare le sue capacità produttive di progettazione e di ricerca in generale anche andare su quelli che sono I nodi più importanti, quelli che stanno alla frontiera tecnologica.", "start": 503.03998, "end": 520.055 }, { "text": "Per questo sta investendo delle cifre elevatissime.", "start": 520.155, "end": 524.455 }, { "text": "Come sempre nel sistema cinese è difficile capire esattamente di che cifre si tratti ma stiamo nell'ordine di centinaia di miliardi.", "start": 524.915, "end": 534.06 } ], "start": 474.22, "end": 534.06, "num_words": 117.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Quindi c'è un investimento molto importante da parte della Cina per recuperare il terreno in questo senso e Anche un investimento che viene rivendicato pubblicamente, come è avvenuto per esempio nel piano made in China 2025, ma con dei target che la Cina non è riuscita a rispettare e non rispetterà.", "start": 534.12, "end": 556.265 }, { "text": "Quindi l'obiettivo degli Stati Uniti è impedire che l'ascesa cinese nel settore sia così forte come è stata l'ascesa cinese in altri standard e settori tecnologici.", "start": 556.92, "end": 573.325 }, { "text": "Obiettivo vicino a questo, legato a questo è un equilibrio della struttura dei semiconduttori che veda anche per le catene del valore diciamo atlantiche e occidentali ma anche per gli Stati Uniti stessi per la ragione della volontà di avere una maggiore presenza manifatturiera anche in termini di posti di lavoro negli Stati Uniti un ruolo più importante.", "start": 576.425, "end": 602.265 }, { "text": "Quindi questo è lo stato dell'arte.", "start": 602.265, "end": 603.885 } ], "start": 534.12, "end": 603.885, "num_words": 141.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Chiarissimo.", "start": 604.745, "end": 605.245 }, { "text": "Hai parlato di centinaia di miliardi investiti in Cina in questi anni per potenziare questo settore per rafforzarsi in questa competizione globale.", "start": 606.90497, "end": 617.18 }, { "text": "Questi sono I primi anni in cui ho notato io ma insomma non mi sono mai trovato davanti a una situazione simile in questi anni in cui ho ho visto politiche industriali più o meno allineate nel sussidiare un settore cioè la Cina, gli Stati Uniti, l'Europa con il Chips Act e anche il Giappone con una serie di norme che sono state introdotte per finanziare e favorire anche l'investimento di società straniere nel territorio giapponese che è una cosa abbastanza rara per il Giappone che tendenzialmente non ama avere investitori stranieri nel proprio mercato.", "start": 619.32, "end": 659.14496 }, { "text": "Si sono tutti nello stesso momento messi fondamentalmente a iniettare un sacco di soldi in un settore che fino a questo momento aveva funzionato abbastanza bene ed era prosperato in maniera abbastanza netta.", "start": 659.14496, "end": 674.42 }, { "text": "E quindi la domanda che qualcuno si pone è: cosa succederà fra qualche anno quando tutte queste politiche di sussidio e tutte queste politiche industriali pubbliche per potenziare questo settore arriveranno a compimento, arriveranno a un punto in cui la produzione arriverà dove si vuole farla arrivare, dove questi soldi la porteranno?", "start": 675.04, "end": 698.74005 } ], "start": 604.745, "end": 698.74005, "num_words": 203.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Beh, è un discorso interessante e anche intrigante.", "start": 699.60004, "end": 703.54004 } ], "start": 699.60004, "end": 703.54004, "num_words": 8.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Da un lato dobbiamo considerare che ci sono le politiche industriali in superficie e ci sono le politiche industriali profonde.", "start": 704.96, "end": 712.515 }, { "text": "Quindi a volte ci sono stati da parte di alcuni stati, delle modalità di sussidio dell'industria non trasparenti ma comunque come pratica standard di mercato e poi a volte queste politiche industriali sono state anche l'oggetto di alcune dispute.", "start": 715.215, "end": 734.06 }, { "text": "Dal punto di vista storico la disputa più importante tra questo punto di vista è stato tra gli Stati Uniti e il Giappone.", "start": 734.545, "end": 741.205 }, { "text": "In particolare negli anni 'ottanta quando c'era una grande paura da parte degli Stati Uniti dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e dall'ascesa giapponese, lo yen forte e le politiche industriali giapponesi del famoso Ministero dell'industria giapponese dell'epoca avevano reso l'industria giapponese dei semiconduttori estremamente importante.", "start": 741.265, "end": 761.462 }, { "text": "Poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni e poi era cominciato anche un insieme di acquisizioni estere da parte delle imprese giapponesi.", "start": 761.462, "end": 769.605 } ], "start": 704.96, "end": 769.605, "num_words": 150.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Addirittura I giapponesi avevano messo gli occhi su una delle aziende storiche della storia dei semiconduttori globale, quindi statunitense, Firstchild, Semicongactor.", "start": 769.605, "end": 780.8 }, { "text": "Pensa in quell'occasione che poi il congresso e gli apparati degli Stati Uniti hanno costruito il sistema attuale di controllo degli investimenti esteri negli Stati Uniti, quindi il potere anche da parte del presidente degli Stati Uniti di bloccare alcune transazioni, cosa che è avvenuto di recente nel mercato dei semiconduttori.", "start": 782.3, "end": 802.065 }, { "text": "Quindi c'è sempre questo gioco dal punto di vista storico.", "start": 802.605, "end": 806.08 }, { "text": "Questo è il primo messaggio.", "start": 806.08, "end": 807.7309 }, { "text": "Il secondo messaggio è che dipende dall'evoluzione di questa industria.", "start": 807.7309, "end": 811.54 } ], "start": 769.605, "end": 811.54, "num_words": 97.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Se un'industria di circa 400 o 500000000000 a livello globale diventa millemiliardi a livello globale nel 2030 proprio per la sempre maggiore pervasività di questi componenti nelle industrie e nella nostra vita quotidiana c'è un generale allargamento della torta.", "start": 812.08, "end": 834.18 }, { "text": "In questo allargamento della torta poi ci sono elementi di competizione e I sussidi possono rientrare in questo ragionamento ma Io credo che il ragionamento importante sia quello per cui si tiene conto della complessità di questa industria in tutti gli elementi della sua catena del valore che degli aspetti che riguarda le capacità di ricerca capacità di ricerca su cui peraltro in Europa esistono delle potenzialità importanti, dei luoghi importanti dove si costruisce costantemente la ricerca dei semiconduttori appunto l'aspetto degli ingegneri e dei tecnici che fanno la progettazione e il design.", "start": 834.18, "end": 877.36505 }, { "text": "Tutto il mondo dei componenti e dell'equipaggiamento con cui gli europei nei Paesi Bassi hanno costruito l'impresa più importante del mondo in questo campo che ASML.", "start": 877.905, "end": 889.83 }, { "text": "Un'azienda che questo slogan interessante per raccontarsi che è l'impresa più importante di cui non avete mai sentito parlare, che la racconta molto bene.", "start": 890.21, "end": 901.19 }, { "text": "Poi c'è anche tutta una serie di elementi chimici, di componenti chimici e di testing che sono fondamentali per l'industria.", "start": 901.41003, "end": 912.815 } ], "start": 812.08, "end": 912.815, "num_words": 202.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Poi ovviamente c'è la parte produttiva e ci sono le industrie integrate che cercano di fare un po' di tutti questi aspetti.", "start": 915.115, "end": 926.07 }, { "text": "Quello che è importante è dove si crea valore, come si stimola la nascita di nuove grandi imprese, come le imprese esistenti si rafforzano e diventano più innovative e questo è sempre un misto di elementi di politica industriale, visione strategica ma anche pura capacità organizzativa imprenditoriale e capacità innovativa.", "start": 926.13, "end": 955.88 }, { "text": "Quindi non può essere semplicemente imbrigliato dalle scelte statali ma sicuramente richiede una grande collaborazione e consapevolezza dell'importanza di questo settore anche per l'aspetto della produzione e dell'organizzazione dei talenti che come dicevo è fondamentale e proprio su questo aspetto dei talenti in una crescita di questo settore in questo decennio si stanno già giocando in Asia e si giocheranno sempre più a livello globale delle grandi partite per accaparrarsi talenti migliori e per saperli formare.", "start": 955.94, "end": 994.195 }, { "text": "Quindi questo aspetto di base poi è fondamentale.", "start": 994.195, "end": 996.535 } ], "start": 915.115, "end": 996.535, "num_words": 156.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Bene, diciamo non si può fare innovazione per decreto, questa è la cosa, diciamo il messaggio.", "start": 996.995, "end": 1003.98004 }, { "text": "Ci sono tanti componenti che servono per riuscire a crescere in un settore così competitivo e così globale come quello dei semiconduttori.", "start": 1004.28, "end": 1012.86005 }, { "text": "Però ci sono stati sicuramente dei decreti, soprattutto a livello americano, che hanno avuto un impatto su questo settore, come ad esempio le sanzioni che sono state imposte anche al trasferimento tecnologico tra Stati Uniti e Cina.", "start": 1014.435, "end": 1030.23 }, { "text": "Ecco, è pensabile un futuro in cui questi 2 giganti mondiali si costruiscono delle catene che non sono interdipendenti come oggi oppure una dose di interdipendenza è obbligatoria?", "start": 1030.61, "end": 1048.735 }, { "text": "E in questo caso ad esempio adesso le sanzioni anche per esempio secondarie che potrebbero colpire la Cina nel caso ad esempio di commercio con la Russia o in generale una guerra commerciale che continua sotto altre forme non solo in via diretta ma anche in via diretta.", "start": 1049.435, "end": 1066.8849 } ], "start": 996.995, "end": 1066.8849, "num_words": 151.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Che impatto potrebbe avere su questo settore che comunque è condizionato dalla geopolitica e dai rapporti che ci sono fra I paesi perché ovviamente il concetto di strategicità forse è mai come oggi si applica a quello dei semiconduttori.", "start": 1067.2649, "end": 1083.12 } ], "start": 1067.2649, "end": 1083.12, "num_words": 39.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "In questo settore e in altri settori esistono sia le regole dell'economia che le regole della geopolitica.", "start": 1085.4199, "end": 1092.1599 }, { "text": "Io non direi che non appartengo ad un campo che dice esiste solo la geopolitica?", "start": 1092.5399, "end": 1099.7849 }, { "text": "È un campo che dice esiste solo l'economia?", "start": 1100.085, "end": 1102.4249 }, { "text": "Per cui le imprese devono andare sul mercato, quotarsi, avere della reputazione e credibilità con degli investitori.", "start": 1102.565, "end": 1112.56 }, { "text": "Poi queste imprese sono comunque collocate in dei luoghi fisici, sono collocate in degli Stati, hanno rapporti con degli Stati.", "start": 1112.62, "end": 1122.48 } ], "start": 1085.4199, "end": 1122.48, "num_words": 77.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Insomma tutto questo è fortemente interconnesso.", "start": 1122.62, "end": 1126.345 }, { "text": "Nelle grandi supply chain come questa, come altre coinvolgono effettivamente un insieme di paesi diversi di quelli che si chiamano colli di bottiglia.", "start": 1127.125, "end": 1138.345 }, { "text": "I colli di bottiglia sono tanti quindi in una catena del valore diciamo il punto in cui per ragioni politiche si può fermare o forzare la catena con degli effetti che possono essere potenzialmente di distruzione economica o comunque di danno economico molto forte sono diversi.", "start": 1138.7, "end": 1164.5549 }, { "text": "In che mondo viviamo?", "start": 1165.54, "end": 1166.8201 }, { "text": "Noi viviamo in un mondo in cui le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti hanno un peso molto rilevante.", "start": 1166.8201, "end": 1172.52 } ], "start": 1122.62, "end": 1172.52, "num_words": 96.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Anche su questo la storia ci aiuta a comprendere questo fatto perché il sistema delle sanzioni degli Stati Uniti è stato codificato principalmente durante 2 guerre.", "start": 1173.06, "end": 1185.345 }, { "text": "La prima è la prima guerra mondiale.", "start": 1186.125, "end": 1188.045 }, { "text": "L'ingresso degli Stati Uniti nella prima guerra mondiale nel 1917.", "start": 1188.045, "end": 1191.265 }, { "text": "Il trading with the Enamy Act è nel 1950 con la guerra di Corea Defense Production Act.", "start": 1192.25, "end": 1200.99 }, { "text": "Da queste 2 fonti normative poi promanano tantissimi elementi di diritto che condizionano il sistema finanziario anche per il ruolo internazionale del dollaro naturalmente e il sistema industriale.", "start": 1203.93, "end": 1220.7051 } ], "start": 1173.06, "end": 1220.7051, "num_words": 88.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Quindi, come è stato mostrato in particolare nel 2020, la capacità di intervento degli Stati Uniti di condizionamento della catene del valore è molto elevata.", "start": 1221.36, "end": 1234.26 }, { "text": "Questo non significa però che le sanzioni siano strumenti di per sé onnipotenti dal punto di vista economico e politico.", "start": 1235.2251, "end": 1244.105 }, { "text": "Dal punto di vista politico perché, come mostrato dalla storia, se l'obiettivo delle sanzioni è il cambio di alcuni regimi politici in alcuni paesi questo non è avvenuto.", "start": 1244.105, "end": 1258.2 }, { "text": "Quindi io penso che l'obiettivo delle sanzioni sia magari l'indebolimento degli avversari da parte degli Stati Uniti perché se l'obiettivo fosse veramente il cambio di regime politico le sanzioni non sarebbero intelligenti.", "start": 1259.46, "end": 1272.485 }, { "text": "E poi le sanzioni, oltre ad avere degli effetti indiretti, hanno anche delle conseguenze intenzionali.", "start": 1273.24, "end": 1279.82 } ], "start": 1221.36, "end": 1279.82, "num_words": 120.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Per esempio tu sanzioni un attore per diminuire la sua capacità in un mercato, ma quell'attore in particolare se appartiene a dei sistemi politico economici che hanno mostrato una loro particolare flessibilità come quello cinese, che è un sistema molto complesso e particolare.", "start": 1280.6, "end": 1305.02 }, { "text": "Poi questo rappresenta un incentivo per quegli attori economici ad andare in altri mercati, a tentare di fare innovazione in altri mercati.", "start": 1305.88, "end": 1313.5 }, { "text": "Per esempio tu mi blocchi nelle telecomunicazioni, io lavoro sull'auto elettrica o sul cloud e mi metto con determinazione a fare questo.", "start": 1313.72, "end": 1323.755 }, { "text": "Quale sarà l'effetto ultimo di questo processo?", "start": 1323.755, "end": 1326.875 }, { "text": "È difficile prevederlo.", "start": 1326.875, "end": 1328.015 } ], "start": 1280.6, "end": 1328.015, "num_words": 97.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Quindi l'obiettivo di breve termine potrebbe essere raggiunto, non sappiamo cosa succede nel medio e lungo termine.", "start": 1328.3151, "end": 1334.96 }, { "text": "Quindi le sanzioni, in particolare le sanzioni degli Stati Uniti, sono un elemento fortemente interconnesso rispetto all'economia mondiale nella sua struttura attuale e I loro effetti e I loro processi vanno costantemente monitorati per capire in che direzione stanno portando le grandi filiere industriali su cui si gioca la competizione economica globale.", "start": 1335.1, "end": 1365.41 } ], "start": 1328.3151, "end": 1365.41, "num_words": 69.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Ecco quindi insomma un continuo fin tuning anche ex post perché le sanzioni che valgono oggi e che funzionano oggi poi non si sa che effetti possono avere tra un anno o fra 10 anni e quindi bisogna sempre controllare e monitorare questo tipo di politiche.", "start": 1365.47, "end": 1382.655 }, { "text": "Bene l'ultima domanda che facciamo oggi è su un consiglio che tu puoi dare ai nostri ascoltatori per leggere o seguire qualcuno che è un esperto, una rivista, una persona, una pubblicazione nel settore di cui ti occupi in questo tema della tecnologia e della geopolitica?", "start": 1382.655, "end": 1407.975 } ], "start": 1365.47, "end": 1407.975, "num_words": 92.0, "speaker": 0 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Io vi sorprenderò un po' perché considero il libro di uno storico, perché abbiamo parlato di quanto le sanzioni siano importanti per comprendere la tecnologia e la geopolitica.", "start": 1408.4349, "end": 1421.74 }, { "text": "Quindi il mio consiglio è leggetevi il libro uscito di recente in inglese, si chiama The Economic weapon, l'arma economica che racconta in modo devo dire sopraffino la storia delle sanzioni tra le 2 guerre, tra la prima guerra mondiale e tra la seconda guerra mondiale in particolare.", "start": 1421.74, "end": 1444.3151 }, { "text": "Ti spiega molto bene come nasce questo sistema.", "start": 1444.3151, "end": 1444.355 }, { "text": "L' scritto Nicholas Molder, questo sistema.", "start": 1444.355, "end": 1449.93 }, { "text": "L' scritto Nicholas Molder.", "start": 1449.99, "end": 1452.17 } ], "start": 1408.4349, "end": 1452.17, "num_words": 94.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Insomma prendetevi un fine settimana per leggere questo libro.", "start": 1452.6301, "end": 1458.2301 }, { "text": "Poi da un po' di mesi sto cercando di farlo pubblicare in italiano, non è molto semplice quindi chi è interessato sappia che gli basta tradurlo e potrà avere la mia prefazione gratis naturalmente se è gradita.", "start": 1458.2301, "end": 1471.135 } ], "start": 1452.6301, "end": 1471.135, "num_words": 46.0, "speaker": 1 }, { "sentences": [ { "text": "Fantastico, abbiamo anche quindi un appello agli editori italiani.", "start": 1471.515, "end": 1475.055 }, { "text": "Ringraziamo Alessandro Resu, grazie di essere stato con noi e ci vediamo alla prossima puntata.", "start": 1475.1951, "end": 1483.14 }, { "text": "Questo episodio è stato scritto da me ed Eleonora Russo registrato negli studi Zuan a Roma e prodotto da Business Plus.", "start": 1483.14, "end": 1489.899 } ], "start": 1471.515, "end": 1489.899, "num_words": 45.0, "speaker": 0 } ] }, "entities": null, "translations": null, "topics": null } ], "detected_language": "" } ], "utterances": [ { "start": 10.88, "end": 12.34, "confidence": 0.8071289, "channel": 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